Most of the experts expect the decision in D.C. v. Heller this week. I will be watching the court, and will post as soon as possible.
A non-expert prediction:
- 2A held as an individual right, probably subject to “reasonable restrictions,” no real guidance on what constitutes reasonable
- D.C. gun ban declared unconstitutional.
- Any ruling on standard of review is unlikely, although I think it would go strict scrutiny if one is established.
- No ruling on incorporation, although again, if one comes down, it would likely be that the amendment does apply to the states.
If we get the first two, it will be a big win, putting to rest the individual right/collective right argument. The reasonable restrictions part isn’t quite as scary as it sounds, 1A has been subject to certain restrictions, and it will be the courts, not the Brady Campaign, deciding what is reasonable (not that they are always right, but still not as bad as”reasonable restrictions” conjures up in our minds.)
The other two would nice to have, but a bad standard of review ruling would be much worse than none, and incorporation does not come into play in this case. On principle, I would rather see a narrow ruling than judicial activism, and while either of those could be ruled on without drifting into activism, neither are needed in this case.
Machine guns are not likely to come up in the decision, and if they do, I would expect a “come back and talk to us later” type wording.
Remember, I am not an expert, don’t blame me if this is wrong, however, I reserve full rights to claim genius if I am right.
[Update] No decision on Monday – More decisions will be released Wednesday, and possibly Thursday.